Machine learning algorithms performed no better than regression models for prognostication in traumatic brain injury

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Dokumenter

  • Benjamin Y. Gravesteijn
  • Daan Nieboer
  • Ari Ercole
  • Hester F. Lingsma
  • David Nelson
  • Ben van Calster
  • Ewout W. Steyerberg
  • Cecilia Åkerlund
  • Krisztina Amrein
  • Nada Andelic
  • Lasse Andreassen
  • Audny Anke
  • Anna Antoni
  • Gérard Audibert
  • Philippe Azouvi
  • Maria Luisa Azzolini
  • Ronald Bartels
  • Pál Barzó
  • Romuald Beauvais
  • Ronny Beer
  • Bo Michael Bellander
  • Antonio Belli
  • Habib Benali
  • Maurizio Berardino
  • Luigi Beretta
  • Morten Blaabjerg
  • Peter Bragge
  • Alexandra Brazinova
  • Vibeke Brinck
  • Joanne Brooker
  • Camilla Brorsson
  • Andras Buki
  • Monika Bullinger
  • Manuel Cabeleira
  • Alessio Caccioppola
  • Emiliana Calappi
  • Maria Rosa Calvi
  • Peter Cameron
  • Guillermo Carbayo Lozano
  • Marco Carbonara
  • Giorgio Chevallard
  • Arturo Chieregato
  • Giuseppe Citerio
  • Maryse Cnossen
  • Mark Coburn
  • Jonathan Coles
  • D. Jamie Cooper
  • Marta Correia
  • Amra Čović
  • Kondziella, Daniel
  • CENTER-TBI collaborators

Objective: We aimed to explore the added value of common machine learning (ML) algorithms for prediction of outcome for moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Study Design and Setting: We performed logistic regression (LR), lasso regression, and ridge regression with key baseline predictors in the IMPACT-II database (15 studies, n = 11,022). ML algorithms included support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting machines, and artificial neural networks and were trained using the same predictors. To assess generalizability of predictions, we performed internal, internal-external, and external validation on the recent CENTER-TBI study (patients with Glasgow Coma Scale <13, n = 1,554). Both calibration (calibration slope/intercept) and discrimination (area under the curve) was quantified. Results: In the IMPACT-II database, 3,332/11,022 (30%) died and 5,233(48%) had unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale less than 4). In the CENTER-TBI study, 348/1,554(29%) died and 651(54%) had unfavorable outcome. Discrimination and calibration varied widely between the studies and less so between the studied algorithms. The mean area under the curve was 0.82 for mortality and 0.77 for unfavorable outcomes in the CENTER-TBI study. Conclusion: ML algorithms may not outperform traditional regression approaches in a low-dimensional setting for outcome prediction after moderate or severe traumatic brain injury. Similar to regression-based prediction models, ML algorithms should be rigorously validated to ensure applicability to new populations.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftJournal of Clinical Epidemiology
Vol/bind122
Sider (fra-til)95-107
Antal sider13
ISSN0895-4356
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2020

ID: 255449006