Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU): protocol for the development and validation of a bedside clinical prediction rule
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Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU) : protocol for the development and validation of a bedside clinical prediction rule. / Granholm, Anders; Perner, Anders; Krag, Mette; Hjortrup, Peter Buhl; Haase, Nicolai; Holst, Lars Broksø; Marker, Søren; Collet, Marie Oxenbøll; Jensen, Aksel Karl Georg; Møller, Morten Hylander.
I: B M J Open, Bind 7, Nr. 3, e015339, 2017.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU)
T2 - protocol for the development and validation of a bedside clinical prediction rule
AU - Granholm, Anders
AU - Perner, Anders
AU - Krag, Mette
AU - Hjortrup, Peter Buhl
AU - Haase, Nicolai
AU - Holst, Lars Broksø
AU - Marker, Søren
AU - Collet, Marie Oxenbøll
AU - Jensen, Aksel Karl Georg
AU - Møller, Morten Hylander
N1 - Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - INTRODUCTION: Mortality prediction scores are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) and in research, but their predictive value deteriorates as scores age. Existing mortality prediction scores are imprecise and complex, which increases the risk of missing data and decreases the applicability bedside in daily clinical practice. We propose the development and validation of a new, simple and updated clinical prediction rule: the Simplified Mortality Score for use in the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU).METHODS AND ANALYSIS: During the first phase of the study, we will develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule that predicts 90-day mortality on ICU admission. The development sample will comprise 4247 adult critically ill patients acutely admitted to the ICU, enrolled in 5 contemporary high-quality ICU studies/trials. The score will be developed using binary logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise elimination of candidate variables, and subsequently be converted into a point-based clinical prediction rule. The general performance, discrimination and calibration of the score will be evaluated, and the score will be internally validated using bootstrapping. During the second phase of the study, the score will be externally validated in a fully independent sample consisting of 3350 patients included in the ongoing Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial. We will compare the performance of the SMS-ICU to that of existing scores.ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We will use data from patients enrolled in studies/trials already approved by the relevant ethical committees and this study requires no further permissions. The results will be reported in accordance with the Transparent Reporting of multivariate prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement, and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.
AB - INTRODUCTION: Mortality prediction scores are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) and in research, but their predictive value deteriorates as scores age. Existing mortality prediction scores are imprecise and complex, which increases the risk of missing data and decreases the applicability bedside in daily clinical practice. We propose the development and validation of a new, simple and updated clinical prediction rule: the Simplified Mortality Score for use in the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU).METHODS AND ANALYSIS: During the first phase of the study, we will develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule that predicts 90-day mortality on ICU admission. The development sample will comprise 4247 adult critically ill patients acutely admitted to the ICU, enrolled in 5 contemporary high-quality ICU studies/trials. The score will be developed using binary logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise elimination of candidate variables, and subsequently be converted into a point-based clinical prediction rule. The general performance, discrimination and calibration of the score will be evaluated, and the score will be internally validated using bootstrapping. During the second phase of the study, the score will be externally validated in a fully independent sample consisting of 3350 patients included in the ongoing Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial. We will compare the performance of the SMS-ICU to that of existing scores.ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We will use data from patients enrolled in studies/trials already approved by the relevant ethical committees and this study requires no further permissions. The results will be reported in accordance with the Transparent Reporting of multivariate prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement, and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.
KW - Adolescent
KW - Adult
KW - Aged
KW - Cohort Studies
KW - Critical Care
KW - Critical Illness
KW - Decision Support Techniques
KW - Female
KW - Hospital Mortality
KW - Humans
KW - Intensive Care Units
KW - Male
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Point-of-Care Systems
KW - Prognosis
KW - Severity of Illness Index
KW - Young Adult
KW - Journal Article
KW - Multicenter Study
KW - Observational Study
KW - Validation Studies
U2 - 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-015339
DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-015339
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 28279999
VL - 7
JO - BMJ Open
JF - BMJ Open
SN - 2044-6055
IS - 3
M1 - e015339
ER -
ID: 188191738