TY - JOUR

T1 - Development and validation of a model to predict incident chronic liver disease in the general population

T2 - The CLivD score

AU - Åberg, Fredrik

AU - Luukkonen, Panu K.

AU - But, Anna

AU - Salomaa, Veikko

AU - Britton, Annie

AU - Petersen, Kasper Meidahl

AU - Bojesen, Stig Egil

AU - Balling, Mie

AU - Nordestgaard, Børge G.

AU - Puukka, Pauli

AU - Männistö, Satu

AU - Lundqvist, Annamari

AU - Perola, Markus

AU - Jula, Antti

AU - Färkkilä, Martti

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s)

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - Background & Aims: Current screening strategies for chronic liver disease focus on detection of subclinical advanced liver fibrosis but cannot identify those at high future risk of severe liver disease. Our aim was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for incident chronic liver disease in the general population based on widely available factors. Methods: Multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to develop prediction models for liver-related outcomes with and without laboratory measures (Modellab and Modelnon-lab) in 25,760 individuals aged 40–70 years. Their data were sourced from the Finnish population-based health examination surveys FINRISK 1992-2012 and Health 2000 (derivation cohort). The models were externally validated in the Whitehall II (n = 5,058) and Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS) (n = 3,049) cohorts. Results: The absolute rate of incident liver outcomes per 100,000 person-years ranged from 53 to 144. The final prediction model included age, sex, alcohol use (drinks/week), waist–hip ratio, diabetes, and smoking, and Modellab also included gamma-glutamyltransferase values. Internally validated Wolbers’ C-statistics were 0.77 for Modellab and 0.75 for Modelnon-lab, while apparent 15-year AUCs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.75-0.93) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.74-0.91). The models identified a small proportion (<2%) of the population with >10% absolute 15-year risk for liver events. Of all liver events, only 10% occurred in participants in the lowest risk category. In the validation cohorts, 15-year AUCs were 0.78 (Modellab) and 0.65 (Modelnon-lab) in the CCHS cohort, and 0.78 (Modelnon-lab) in the Whitehall II cohort. Conclusions: Based on widely available risk factors, the Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) score can be used to predict risk of future advanced liver disease in the general population. Lay summary: Liver disease often progresses silently without symptoms and thus the diagnosis is often delayed until severe complications occur and prognosis becomes poor. In order to identify individuals in the general population who have a high risk of developing severe liver disease in the future, we developed and validated a Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) risk prediction score, based on age, sex, alcohol use, waist-hip ratio, diabetes, and smoking, with or without measurement of the liver enzyme gamma-glutamyltransferase. The CLivD score can be used as part of health counseling, and for planning further liver investigations and follow-up.

AB - Background & Aims: Current screening strategies for chronic liver disease focus on detection of subclinical advanced liver fibrosis but cannot identify those at high future risk of severe liver disease. Our aim was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for incident chronic liver disease in the general population based on widely available factors. Methods: Multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to develop prediction models for liver-related outcomes with and without laboratory measures (Modellab and Modelnon-lab) in 25,760 individuals aged 40–70 years. Their data were sourced from the Finnish population-based health examination surveys FINRISK 1992-2012 and Health 2000 (derivation cohort). The models were externally validated in the Whitehall II (n = 5,058) and Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS) (n = 3,049) cohorts. Results: The absolute rate of incident liver outcomes per 100,000 person-years ranged from 53 to 144. The final prediction model included age, sex, alcohol use (drinks/week), waist–hip ratio, diabetes, and smoking, and Modellab also included gamma-glutamyltransferase values. Internally validated Wolbers’ C-statistics were 0.77 for Modellab and 0.75 for Modelnon-lab, while apparent 15-year AUCs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.75-0.93) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.74-0.91). The models identified a small proportion (<2%) of the population with >10% absolute 15-year risk for liver events. Of all liver events, only 10% occurred in participants in the lowest risk category. In the validation cohorts, 15-year AUCs were 0.78 (Modellab) and 0.65 (Modelnon-lab) in the CCHS cohort, and 0.78 (Modelnon-lab) in the Whitehall II cohort. Conclusions: Based on widely available risk factors, the Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) score can be used to predict risk of future advanced liver disease in the general population. Lay summary: Liver disease often progresses silently without symptoms and thus the diagnosis is often delayed until severe complications occur and prognosis becomes poor. In order to identify individuals in the general population who have a high risk of developing severe liver disease in the future, we developed and validated a Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) risk prediction score, based on age, sex, alcohol use, waist-hip ratio, diabetes, and smoking, with or without measurement of the liver enzyme gamma-glutamyltransferase. The CLivD score can be used as part of health counseling, and for planning further liver investigations and follow-up.

KW - liver cirrhosis

KW - morbidity

KW - mortality

KW - risk prediction

KW - screening

U2 - 10.1016/j.jhep.2022.02.021

DO - 10.1016/j.jhep.2022.02.021

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 35271949

AN - SCOPUS:85127355929

VL - 77

SP - 302

EP - 311

JO - Journal of Hepatology, Supplement

JF - Journal of Hepatology, Supplement

SN - 0169-5185

IS - 2

ER -